Resentencing and Recidivism: What the Data Shows
What if the instincts driving incarceration decisions are systematically wrong, and the data can prove it?
This training brings together two researchers whose work cuts straight to that question. Professor Hannah Shaffer of Harvard Law School links what prosecutors actually believe about the risk of violent re-arrest to the incarceration outcomes in their own cases. Her findings reveal a striking gap between belief and reality: prosecutors tend to underestimate how sharply risk declines with age and overestimate the risk tied to criminal records, with real consequences for who stays behind bars.
Alissa Skog of the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley turns to what happens when California takes a second look. Drawing on Proposition 36 (2012), felony murder reform, and CDCR-initiated resentencing, her analysis shows that people released under these policies had lower recidivism rates than the general prison population, evidence that targeted resentencing can reduce incarceration without compromising public safety.
Together, they make the case that better information leads to better outcomes, for the system and the people in it.
Eligible for 1 Hour of General CLE Credit in CA. Pending CLE approval in CO and VA. CLE self-submission options in other states. Email us if you have questions regarding CLE credit.
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Speakers
Alissa Skog is a Researcher at the California Policy Lab (CPL) at UC Berkeley, where she studies the impact of policy and program reforms on the criminal legal system. Passionate about using data to improve community safety, her work explores alternatives to incarceration and seeks to move beyond traditional recidivism measures. At CPL, she co-authors reports on issues including restorative justice, resentencing policies, pretrial reform, and record relief while providing technical assistance to government agencies at the state and local levels.
Previously, as a policy fellow in the San Francisco District Attorney’s Office, her work was instrumental in launching the city’s first local recidivism study and a public outcomes dashboard. Alissa holds a Master of Public Policy from UC Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy and a B.A. from the University of San Diego. She serves on the Board of Directors for The Pathfinder Network, a Portland-based organization that provides support for individuals and families impacted by the justice system.
Hannah Shaffer joined Harvard Law School as an assistant professor in 2023. Her research uses empirical methods to study how discretion moves through the criminal legal system — from arrest to charging to sentencing to rearrest. Her recent work uses administrative court records to examine racial disparities in criminal charging and sentencing, specifically how prosecutors interpret and respond to racial disparities inherited from police and earlier decision-makers. She also surveys prosecutors and links their reported beliefs to their real-world decisions.
Recent publications include “Prosecutors, Race, and the Criminal Pipeline” (University of Chicago Law Review); “Brokers of Bias: Do Prosecutors Compound or Attenuate Racial Disparities Inherited at Arrest?” (Review of Economics and Statistics); “Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime” (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy); and a working paper evaluating the impacts of police body-worn cameras on arrest and incarceration outcomes. Shaffer joined HLS from the University of Chicago Law School, where she was a Bigelow Fellow. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard, a J.D. from HLS, and a B.A. summa cum laude from Washington University in St. Louis.